From Sanaa to Tehran: Will U.S. Strikes Against the Houthis Lead to a Confrontation with Iran?

Introduction

The Ansar Allah “Houthis” group announced the resumption of its ban on Israeli ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Tuesday, March 11, 2025, following the expiration of the deadline it had given Israel to allow humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip. This was stated in a recorded speech by the group’s military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, posted on his account on the X platform, where he declared that their forces “confirm the resumption of the ban on all Israeli ships in the designated operational areas in the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Gulf of Aden, following the expiration of the deadline granted by the group’s leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, to mediators to pressure the Israelis into reopening the crossings and allowing aid into the Gaza Strip.”

In response, U.S. Secretary of  Defense Pete Hegseth vowed on Sunday, March 16, 2025, that the United States would carry out “relentless” strikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen until the group ceases its military operations targeting American assets and global shipping routes.

In this context, Houthi-affiliated media outlets reported on Sunday, March 16 2024, that approximately 40 American airstrikes on the capital, Sanaa, as well as Saada and Al-Bayda, resulted in a preliminary toll of 32 casualties and over a hundred injuries. These operations take place amid escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran and signs that U.S. strikes are focused on the tactical deterrence of the Houthis, making them part of a broader American strategy aimed at containing Iranian influence. This escalation coincides with the collapse of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, reinforcing the possibility that the region may be heading toward a new phase of entangled military confrontations.

This paper examines the objectives and messages underlying this military campaign, focusing on the prospects of continued escalation between the United States and the Houthis and the possibility of it extending into a direct confrontation with Iran. It also seeks to answer a critical question: Will Washington succeed in deterring the Houthis through these operations, or will this strategy lead to a greater escalation that could involve a broader confrontation with Iran? This is especially relevant given the growing indications that Israel is intensifying pressure on the United States to push it toward direct conflict with Tehran.

Amid the complexities of the regional landscape, the paper considers the strategic dimensions of these operations, including U.S. messaging toward Iran, Israel’s efforts to expand the scope of confrontation, and the role of international allies in shaping the escalation pathways. It also explores possible scenarios for future developments, ranging from continued limited strikes to the potential outbreak of a large-scale regional confrontation.

From this perspective, the paper will highlight the key American messages and underlying objectives of this military campaign, which should be taken into account when discussing the primary goals of this campaign at this critical juncture. These can be interpreted as follows:

American Messages; During his first term, U.S. President Donald Trump adopted a “maximum pressure” policy on Iran, which manifested in the imposition of a broad set of economic sanctions that significantly impacted the Iranian economy, along with the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal on May 8, 2018.

Continuing this approach, Trump reaffirmed his hardline stance on Iran’s nuclear program even before officially assuming office again in January 2025. Since announcing his candidacy for the presidential elections in July 2024, he has emphasised the need for a “new nuclear deal” with Iran. On November 16, 2025, he stated: “We must reach an agreement, because the consequences are impossible. We must reach an agreement.”

As part of his escalating position toward Tehran, upon taking office, Trump signed a presidential memorandum on February 5, 2025, reinstating the maximum pressure policy on the Iranian government, aiming to block Tehran’s path to acquiring a nuclear weapon and counter its destabilising influence abroad, according to a White House statement at the time.

In a further escalation against what is known as Iran’s “proxies” in the region, the United States launched large-scale airstrikes on the Houthis in Yemen. The Pentagon announced that since Saturday, March 15, 2025, it had targeted 30 Houthi sites in the largest U.S. military operation in the Middle East since Trump’s return to the White House. 

This ongoing military campaign cannot be viewed in isolation from the broader U.S. approach toward Iran, which is characterised by stringent economic sanctions and firm official statements underscoring Washington’s determination to exert maximum pressure on Tehran. These military strikes are part of a wider American strategy aimed at delivering clear and direct messages to Iran: that the United States is not only capable of countering any Iranian threat but is also resolute in defending its interests and allies in the region.

Reinforcing this stance, U.S. President Donald Trump declared on March 17, 2025, that Iran would be held accountable for any future attacks carried out by the Houthis, a clear indication that the Trump administration might consider direct strikes against Iran if the Houthis continue targeting American interests—especially if evidence emerges of military or intelligence support from Tehran.

This statement reveals the potential for U.S. military strikes against Iranian targets or Iran’s affiliated groups in the region as part of an escalatory strategy designed to deter Tehran—not only in response to proven arms support for the Houthis in the future but also concerning its nuclear program. This comes within the context of Trump’s threats before launching the military campaign against the Houthis. On March 13, 2025, Washington delivered an official message to Iran, giving it a choice between negotiating a new agreement or facing direct military action. However, Tehran rejected negotiations under threat, further increasing the likelihood of escalation in the coming period.

Israel’s Efforts to Open the Iran Front; The recent U.S. strikes on the Houthis in Yemen are part of an escalating military confrontation in the Middle East, coinciding with Israeli attempts to drag the United States into a broader conflict with Iran. Since the outbreak of Israel’s war on Gaza in October 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has been pushing Washington toward a more aggressive stance against Iran. This was highlighted by The Washington Post on October 14, 2025, which noted Israel’s readiness to launch military strikes against Iranian targets, necessitating U.S. support and backing.

Israel seeks to expand the scope of regional conflict by urging Washington to respond militarily to Houthi threats in the wake of the Gaza war. It appears that Tel Aviv is attempting to lure the United States into escalating tensions with Iran, particularly given Tehran’s logistical and military support for the Houthis. Thus, targeting the group could serve as a preliminary step toward broadening military operations to include direct Iranian targets, increasing the likelihood of escalation with Iran.

Israel is betting on escalation as suspicions grow over Netanyahu’s intentions to widen the war with Iran by exploiting ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Yemen. Israel views continued military pressure on Tehran and its proxies as a means to weaken Iran’s regional position and potentially push the U.S. toward more confrontational steps. This comes at a time when the influence of Iran’s allied factions has waned—particularly in Syria, where Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapsed on December 8, 2024, and in Lebanon, following Israel’s extensive strikes on Hezbollah, which resulted in the deaths of most of its senior leadership, including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Therefore, targeting the Houthis carries a direct message to Tehran: Washington is prepared to expand its operations against regional threats, which may provoke escalatory responses from Iran. This scenario aligns with Israel’s objectives of reinforcing its stance against Iran.

Since the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in January 2025,  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been retreating from the deal under intense criticism from Israel’s far-right factions. In this context, Israel has resumed and expanded its attacks on Gaza. On Tuesday, March 18, 2025, Netanyahu’s office announced that Israeli forces had targeted Hamas positions across the Gaza Strip. This move is part of an escalatory policy aimed at keeping the war ongoing and preventing any long-term truce, as Israel considers continued military operations necessary to impose its political and security conditions.

Furthermore, Israel is seeking to shift the confrontation to broader fronts. The Israeli military is expanding its presence in Syria, continuing airstrikes against Iranian targets and affiliated militias, while maintaining its military foothold in southern Lebanon despite the ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in November 2024. This indicates that Tel Aviv is not only intensifying its military operations in Gaza but is also pushing for a larger escalation against Iran, which is the main backer of Hezbollah and Palestinian armed factions. This reflects Israel’s intent to keep regional tensions high and reshape the rules of engagement in the Middle East.

In light of this, Israel is expected to cooperate with the United States in conducting precision strikes against the Houthis in Yemen in the near future, as well as in potential assassination operations targeting Houthi leaders. Additionally, it may participate in military actions against nuclear and military sites inside Iran, potentially triggering Iranian retaliation and further regional tensions. This escalation would serve to appease Israel’s far-right factions and the ruling coalition, which has repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the government and topple Netanyahu over his handling of Gaza and Iran.

The escalation opportunities with Iran

U.S. strikes may push the Houthis to intensify their attacks, especially in parallel with Israel’s escalation of airstrikes on Gaza at the moment. In his latest speech, the leader of Ansar Allah linked the cessation of attacks on Israeli ships in the Red Sea to the entry of aid into Gaza, which is not expected at this stage “despite mediators calling for a return to negotiations,” given Israel’s resumption of the war on Gaza alongside the American military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen. This may necessitate additional American escalation, particularly after Trump held Iran responsible for any future Houthi attacks.

On March 16, 2025, the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, vowed to respond to any attack following threats from U.S. President Donald Trump against Tehran over Washington’s strikes on the Houthis in Yemen. In statements broadcast on state television, Salami said, “Iran will not start a war, but if anyone threatens it, we will respond appropriately, decisively, and firmly.” This statement reflects Iran’s deterrence policy while also keeping the door open for a potential escalation if Washington decides to attack Iran by directly targeting Iranian sites.

Hossein Salami’s statement carries a dual message: Tehran affirms that it does not seek war, but at the same time, it brandishes the threat of a strong response if it faces any direct threat. This message primarily targets the United States and serves as a means to deter any further escalatory measures by Israel regarding the Iranian nuclear file.

Salami’s statement also aims to rely on escalatory rhetoric to reinforce his image domestically, especially amid the ongoing economic and military pressures on Iran. These statements also seek to reassure the Iranian public that the regime remains strong and capable of defending its interests against both the United States and Israel.

Despite Iran’s statements affirming that it does not seek war, it simultaneously adopts the approach of “flexible deterrence,” leaving the door open for escalatory options if Tehran is subjected to direct strikes. This keeps the region facing open-ended scenarios, ranging from the continuation of indirect confrontation through proxies to the possibility of events spiralling into a broader confrontation if Washington and Tel Aviv decide to go beyond limited strikes to directly targeting Iran.

The Limits of U.S. Effectiveness in Deterring the Houthis

Since the escalation of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, the United States has adopted a dual military and political strategy in an attempt to restore lost deterrence. However, questions remain about the effectiveness of this policy in achieving its desired objectives, particularly given the Houthis’ ability to adapt to U.S. pressure and continue their escalatory maritime operations.

As part of these efforts, former U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced the formation of a multinational naval force in December 2023 to protect navigation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden under Operation “Prosperity Guardian.” While this force has enhanced security measures, Houthi attacks have persisted, indicating that military deterrence alone has not been sufficient to completely halt the attacks.

So far, the Houthis have divided their maritime campaign into five phases, which can be outlined as follows:

• Phase One: Attacks focused on missile strikes targeting Israel, beginning in October 2023 with the Gaza war, and on Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea starting in November 2023.

• Phase Two: In December 2023, attacks expanded to include all ships heading to Israeli ports. Vessels with direct or indirect ties to Israel, as well as those that had previously visited Israeli ports, became targets.

• Phase Three: In January 2024, attacks expanded further to target ships linked to the United States and the United Kingdom.

• Phase Four: In May 2024, the scope widened again to include ships owned or operated by entities that also own vessels visiting Israeli ports.

• Phase Five: This phase was announced after the Houthis launched the “Yafa” drone in Tel Aviv on July 19, 2024, marking a continuation of the previous phases.

In each phase, the group managed to force more vessels to avoid the southern Red Sea. By the fourth phase, from at least late April 2024, additional shipping companies engaged in trade with Israeli ports had started avoiding the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. At the same time, on certain occasions, the attacks drew attention to other regional activities, such as Russia’s oil trade.

U.S. efforts to restore deterrence against the Houthis face complex challenges, as limited military strikes and political sanctions have not decisively curbed the group’s escalation. While Washington seeks to strike a balance between applying military pressure and maintaining regional stability, the Houthis have demonstrated their ability to adapt to these pressures and expand their maritime operations, benefiting from Iranian support and escalating geopolitical tensions.

In this context, the airstrikes launched by the Trump administration in Yemen marked the first time the U.S. had explicitly targeted Houthi leaders, in addition to their military centres and command-and-control hubs. The success of American deterrence against the Houthis may largely depend on adopting more aggressive strategies, such as the targeted assassination of key Houthi leaders—similar to Israel’s approach against Hezbollah commanders. This tactic could weaken the group’s central leadership and disrupt its organisational structure, potentially limiting its ability to coordinate maritime attacks. However, this approach carries significant risks, as it may provoke the Houthis into even more aggressive retaliatory actions and potentially increase the likelihood of direct Iranian involvement in the confrontation.

Possible Scenarios

Iran Avoiding Direct Support for the Houthis to Prevent a Confrontation with Washington: Iran’s lack of direct response to Israel’s escalation against Hezbollah in Lebanon—despite its declared “Unity of Fronts” doctrine—suggests a likely pattern that could also apply to its handling of U.S. escalation against the Houthis in Yemen. While Iran utilises proxy groups to expand its regional influence, its direct military involvement remains constrained by complex strategic calculations related to the balance of power, the cost of escalation, and the ability to deter adversaries without being drawn into an open confrontation.

In the case of Hezbollah, despite Israel’s recent military actions, Iran chose to regulate the intensity of the confrontation rather than push for a full-scale war. This reflects a strategy of “remote management,” where Tehran supports its allies without direct engagement. The same approach may apply to the Houthis, particularly since the U.S. escalation occurs within the broader context of the Washington-Tehran standoff over the nuclear issue and aims to deter Houthi threats to international shipping.

This perspective is reinforced by a statement from Hossein Salami, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), on March 16, 2025, in which he asserted that “Iran will not start a war, but it will respond appropriately, decisively, and resolutely if threatened.” This statement indicates that Tehran prefers to maintain a defensive stance rather than an offensive one that could lead to full-scale military escalation. At the same time, it does not want to appear weak in the eyes of its adversaries, meaning it may scale back its support for the Houthis in the short to medium term.

It can be argued that U.S. military action against the Houthis is unlikely to trigger direct Iranian intervention unless Iran itself comes under direct attack. Should Iran face large-scale strikes on military sites within its borders, it may respond by expanding support for its regional proxies—despite their declining influence—through the provision of more advanced military technology or by mobilising other militias in the region to divert pressure away from Iran. This scenario reflects a recurring pattern in Iranian strategy, wherein Tehran employs a “brinkmanship” approach without crossing red lines that would provoke a direct U.S. military response.

Regional Escalation: The recent escalation—marked by the Houthis’ announcement of targeting the U.S. aircraft carrier Harry Truman and a U.S. destroyer in the Red Sea on March 18, 2025—signals a critical phase in the ongoing confrontations, particularly under the hardline Trump administration. Unlike the Biden administration’s more restrained approach, Washington may push for a broader escalation against the Houthis’ capabilities in Yemen, especially if Tehran’s continued involvement in supplying the group with advanced weapons and technology is confirmed.

The Trump administration is likely to view sustained attacks on its forces and naval assets as crossing a red line, potentially prompting an expansion of retaliatory measures. This could include intensified airstrikes on Houthi military sites within Yemen and targeting the infrastructure Iran uses to transfer weapons to the group. U.S. actions may also escalate to the point of considering direct strikes against Iran itself.

However, given the geopolitical complexities, American strikes may not be limited to Yemen and Iran alone. They could extend to Iran’s regional proxies in Iraq and Lebanon, particularly if Iran-aligned factions target U.S. interests in the region. These factions have the capability to pose direct threats to American assets, which may prompt Washington to expand its military responses beyond the immediate Houthi threat.

The Most Likely Scenario: Given the current circumstances, the most probable scenario is the first one—where Iran avoids directly supporting the Houthis or engaging in a full-scale war with Washington, while the U.S. expands its military strikes against the Houthis’ infrastructure. This stems primarily from Iran’s strategic caution in avoiding a direct confrontation with both Tel Aviv and Washington, aligning with its broader approach to regional crises, as seen in its management of the escalation between Israel and Hezbollah. However, Iran is likely to enter the conflict only in one case—if it faces a direct military attack.

Conclusion

The recent escalation in the Red Sea reflects the complexity of the regional landscape, where international and regional interests intersect, keeping the crisis open to further developments in the near future. While global powers seek to contain tensions and prevent a full-scale escalation, striking a balance between deterrence and containment remains a crucial factor in shaping the region’s security strategy.

In this context, the United States faces significant challenges in deterring the Houthis, as the group has demonstrated a high degree of adaptability to military and political pressures. On the other hand, Iran’s approach to the U.S. escalation against the Houthis reflects a cautious strategic stance, as Tehran prefers to avoid direct confrontation with Washington while continuing to support its allies indirectly. Given the ongoing tensions, the Red Sea remains a key focal point in global security and economic calculations, necessitating more comprehensive approaches to address the escalating challenges.

By Mohamed Nabil El-Bendary, Political Researcher at the InteRregional for Strategic Analysis, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.